At this moment in time, I simply can’t wrap my head around the idea that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be allowed to fail. Instead, it seems more likely that the federal government would jump in and prop up the GSEs with our tax dollars. A moral hazard yet the lesser of two evils?
Congress can pass all kinds of bills to try and help homeowners; it’s not going to be enough money. There are still way too many option ARMs out there set to adjust this summer and into 2009. The meltdown of the entire mortgage industry is just getting started. It took us 8 years to run up the bubble, it’s going to take us at least 8 years to unwind it all. I’ve been saying that since last year so now we only need to survive through 7 more years of mortgage turmoil. Fannie and Freddie guidelines continue to tighten, as they should, (until default rates stabilize) which pushes more product onto superhero FHA.
The next question is, who is willing to buy GNMA bonds filled with FHA mortgages?